Table 2 One-way and full sensitivity analyses performed as part of the cost-effectiveness evaluation
Component | Base case | Variation in sensitivity analysis |
|---|---|---|
One-way sensitivity analysis | ||
Proportion of chronic dysphagia | 50% chronic, 50% resolved within 5 years | Scenario 1: 0% chronic, 100% resolved within 5y Scenario 2: 100% chronic, 0% resolved within 5y |
Cost of proton therapy (33 fx) | $36,659 | Scenario 1: $31,659 Scenario 2: $26,659 Scenario 3: $21,659 |
Full sensitivity analysis | ||
QALY calculation | ||
Hazard ratio for patients with > 10 pack-year smoking history | 1.73 | Normal distribution matching 95% CI 1.17–2.57 |
Quality-adjustment factors | Beta distributions matching 95% CIs: | |
Dysphagia (grade ≥ 2) | 0.83 | 0.70–0.93 |
Esophagitis (grade ≥ 3) | 0.66 | 0.35–0.90 |
Xerostomia (grade ≥ 2) | 0.82 | 0.72–0.90 |
Hypothyroidism (elevated TSH with or without T4/T3 changes requiring hormone replacement) | 0.97 | 0.94–0.98 |
Oral mucositis (grade ≥ 3) | 0.06 | 0.01–0.15 |
Cost-effectiveness calculation | ||
Proportion of oral mucositis or esophagitis cases requiring inpatient hospital admission | 10% | Normal distribution matching 95% CI 0–20% |
Proportion of oral mucositis cases resulting in emergency room visit | 15% | Normal distribution matching 95% CI 5–25% |
Proportion of esophagitis cases resulting in emergency room visit | 10% | Normal distribution matching 95% CI 0–20% |
Proportion of dysphagia cases requiring chronic PEG tube | 10% | Normal distribution matching 95% CI 0–20% |
Proportion of patients receiving stricture dilation for dysphagia | 16% | Normal distribution matching 95% CI 11–21% |
Cost of stricture dilation | $1700 | Normal distribution matching 95% CI $1200–$2200 |